"Seven Faces of "The Peril""
by James Bullard
In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one that is consistent with monetary policy as it has typically been implemented in the United States in recent years and one that is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, deflationary regime observed in Japan during the same period.
"The Economic Progress of African Americans in Urban Areas: A Tale of 14 Cities"
by Dan A. Black, Natalia Kolesnikova, and Lowell J. Taylor
How significant was the economic progress of African Americans in the United States between 1970 and 2000? In this paper the authors examine this issue for black men 25 to 55 years of age who live in 14 large U.S. metropolitan areas.
"Measuring International Trade Policy: A Primer on Trade Restrictiveness Indices"
by Cletus C. Coughlin
Measuring the overall restrictiveness of a country’s international trade policies is important and, in fact, essential for estimating the effects of trade policies and for negotiations to reduce trade barriers. A good measure is also difficult to produce: Trade restrictiveness indices are constructed by combining the actual structure of trade restrictions, which is generally quite different across goods, into a single number.
"The Geographic Distribution and Characteristics of U.S. Bank Failures, 2007-2010: Do Bank Failures Still Reflect Local Economic Conditions?"
by Craig P. Aubuchon and David C. Wheelock
The financial crisis and recession that began in 2007 brought a sharp increase in the number of bank failures in the United States. This article investigates characteristics of banks that failed and regional patterns in bank failure rates during 2007-10. The article compares the recent experience with that of 1987-92, when the United States last experienced a high number of bank failures.
"A Survey of Announcement Effects on Foreign Exchange Returns"
by Christopher J. Neely and S. Rubun Dey
Researchers have long studied the reaction of foreign exchange returns to macroeconomic announcements in order to infer changes in policy reaction functions and foreign exchange microstructure, including the speed of market reaction to news and how order flow helps impound public and private information into prices. Appendix.
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